« Mario and Peach: The Real Story. Part 1 | Main | PG Dev Kit - The Sniper »
Last week, we reported on Famitsu's release of global sales figures for the latest generation of consoles and games. This week we look inside the numbers to try and provide some insight as to what this all might mean. And based on our analysis, Pink Godzilla predicts that by 2008 the NDS will overtake the PS2 as the best selling system of all time.
Read on to find out why.
If you recall, Famitsu reported on the global sales figures of hardware and software for both sales to date and sales for the last three quarters of 2006. Using some fancy arithmetic, Pink Godzilla came up with some numbers that might be considered early indicators of how the console wars, both handheld and home, might shake out. Stand back while we read the mystical tea leaves.
First, we examine the heated debate as to who will prevail in the handheld market - the reigning champion Nintendo with its NDS or the challenger Sony with its PSP. This battle pits two heavyweights with two very different strategies. The last time Sony challenged Nintendo for its throne, of course, Nintendo fell hard with the Playstation brand trouncing the N64 and Gamecube. Will Sony deliver the knockout punch and reign supreme in the handheld market as well, or has Nintendo trumped Sony with its focus on games over multi-media functionality. Let's take a look at the numbers.
Number of units sold 4/1/06 though 12/31/06 compared to number of units sold since launch.
OVERALL WORLD WIDE SALES
NDS Hardware - 54%
NDS Software - 61%
PSP Hardware - 31%
PSP Software - 48%
So what does this mean? For one, sales for both the NDS hardware and software are growing at a much faster rate than sales for the PSP. Amazingly, the NDS more than doubled the amount of hardware on the market during the last nine months of 2006. While the 31% growth of the PSP installed user base is certainly good news for Sony, if the precipitous pace of NDS sales continues at this rate, the NDS should overtake the PS2 in mid-2008 as the best selling videogame system of all-time. Impressive.
Now let's look at the numbers inside the numbers and break growth down by region - North America compared to Japan.
Number of units sold 4/1/06 though 12/31/06 compared to number of units sold since launch.
JAPAN SALES
NDS Hardware - 52%
NDS Software - 61%
PSP Hardware - 25%
PSP Software - 40%
NORTH AMERICA SALES
NDS Hardware - 50%
NDS Software - 58%
PSP Hardware - 33%
PSP Software - 44%
So while the installed user base for the NDS and PSP is relatively equal in North America (10 million versus 9.5 million), the NDS is really starting to pick up steam as evidenced by its 50% increase in hardware units sold as compared to the 33% increase for the PSP over the same period of time. If sales continue at this pace through 2007, then by the beginning of the 2007 holiday shopping season, the NDS will enjoy an installed user base of 20 million as compared to the PSP's 12 million. Granted a lot could change and various factors could dramatically alter the pace of growth, but these figures certainly illustrate that if the momentum of the NDS continues unabated, the PSP is quickly going to be left eating dual screen dust.
This is already the case in Japan, where Nintendo recently announced that it has sold 15 million NDS systems in just 115 weeks!. How amazing is that? Well it took the PS2, the best selling console in history, 220 weeks to accomplish the same feet.
Next, we examine software units sold per system sold. Why is this number important? As everyone knows, console manufacturers often take a loss on each system sold with the hopes to make up the difference and then some with software sales. This is the classic give-away-the-razors-to-sell-the-blades economic approach. So the ratio of software units to hardware units can serve as an indicator of the financial health of a console for its manufacturer. Let's see how each system compares.
Software units sold for each hardware unit sold.
Nintendo DS
Japan - 4.5
North America - 4.9
World Wide - 4.33
Nintendo Wii
Japan - 3.8
North America - 7.2
World Wide - 5.5
Sony PSP
Japan - 2.7
North America - 4.1
World Wide - 3.66
Sony PS2
Japan - 9.0
North America - 11.9
World Wide - 10.8
Sony PS3
Japan - 1.23
North America - 4.1
World Wide - 2.8
So what does all this mean? For one, apparently Noth Americans buy more games for their systems than gamers from any other region. More importantly, Wii owners are purchasing games at break-neck speed while PS3 owners, especially those in Japan, are taking a more pedestrian approach. While this ratio by no means signals that the end is nigh for the PS3, obviously Sony would prefer the Wii's 5:1 ratio as opposed to its own 3:1 ratio. Moreover, third party publishers might start to take notice and shift development towards the Wii with its free-spending consumer base. Then again, the ridiculous 7:1 ratio the Wii is experiencing in North America might simply be attributed to the fact that the Wii and its unique controllers are a novelty item, and as the novelty wears thin, software sales might drop just as precipitously.
Alarming, however, is the nearly 1:1 ratio for the PS3 in Japan. Such a paltry number not only hurts Sony but the retailers as well since retailers sell systems at cost hoping to make a small margin on the accompanying software sales.
Console wars are definitely a marathon, not a sprint. So while these sales numbers might provide a snapshot of the console war landscape, only time will tell as to which system shall prevail. After all, did anyone predict back in 1994-95 that Sony would dethrone Nintendo and dominate gaming for the next decade? Doubt it. But at the same time, these figures make it difficult for the industry and gamers alike to ignore what Nintendo is doing.

.